The Future of Open Access and Scientific Publishing in Europe

26 May 2026 / Research

Across Europe, open access has become a central feature of the research landscape. However, the economic, legal and structural conditions underpinning scientific publishing remain complex. While more publicly funded research is now openly available, challenges persist in terms of costs, legal fragmentation and the efficient circulation and reuse of knowledge.

Commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, this study provides an economic analysis of the scientific publishing ecosystem and assesses the potential impact of introducing an EU-wide secondary publication right (SPR) and strengthening copyright exceptions for scientific research.

What we examined

The study analyses how research is produced, published and accessed across Europe, combining:

  • Stakeholder consultations such as surveys and interviews
  • Bibliometric and market data analysis
  • Literature review
  • Synthetic counterfactual analysis
  • Multi-criteria analysis

It focuses on market dynamics, open access developments, cost structures and legal frameworks, as well as the potential impact of EU-level policy reforms.

Key insights

Open access has expanded significantly over the past two decades. In 2024, around 72% of EU/EEA publications were available through some form of open access, compared to 44% globally. However, growth has stabilised in recent years.

The transition has not reduced costs. Instead, financial pressure is largely borne by research performing organisations and authors. Total scholarly publishing expenditure in Europe is estimated at approximately EUR 4 billion annually, with subscription and open access costs each accounting for roughly half.

At the same time, the publishing ecosystem remains economically significant, generating around EUR 17.6 billion in revenues in 2024.

Secondary publication rights (SPR)

Evidence from six EU Member States shows that existing SPR frameworks have not driven system-wide change. Instead, they function primarily as an enabling mechanism for increasing access.

The study identifies a clear trade-off across policy scenarios:

  • More limited approaches should improve legal clarity but have modest impact.
  • More ambitious approaches are expected to expand access and may generate cost savings for researchers and RPOs. However, stronger measures also increase pressure on publisher business models and may disrupt the publishing market.

Copyright exceptions for scientific research

The current legal framework remains fragmented across Member States, creating uncertainty and administrative burden.

Strengthening copyright exceptions is expected to:

  • Improve legal certainty
  • Reduce transaction costs
  • Facilitate cross-border research collaboration

Impacts on publishing markets are expected to be limited and mainly affect secondary licensing rather than core subscription revenues.

Implications for AI and reuse

The study finds that increased access alone is not sufficient to support large-scale reuse, including for AI.

Effective reuse depends on:

  • Clear legal conditions
  • Machine-readable licensing
  • Interoperable metadata
  • Adequate infrastructure

Why this matters

Increasing access and reuse of publicly funded research can strengthen Europe’s research performance and competitiveness. However, these benefits are accompanied by adjustment pressures for publishers and other stakeholders.

As open access reaches high levels across Europe, future progress will depend on improving how the system functions – reducing fragmentation, increasing transparency and ensuring long-term sustainability.

Learn more

You can access the executive summary HERE.


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